Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition

This paper analyses changes in economic regional interlinkages in Europe over time and investigates the factors that could explain the dynamics of these changes. Our four main findings are the following: (i) we detect a significant surge in regional synchronisation after the Great Recession; (ii) we identify the regions most interrelated with the rest of Europe, namely, Ile de France, Inner London and Lombardia; (iii) we find that sectoral composition explains regional synchronisation in Europe, mainly after the Great Recession and (iv) we document that sectoral composition has important implications for aggregate economic fluctuations, in particular, that similarities in services-related sectors across regions explain a nonlinear relationship between sectoral composition and regional business cycle synchronisation. We also propose a new method to measure time-varying synchronisation in small samples that combines regime-switching models and dynamic model averaging.     

Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study

This study explores the impact of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand in Malaysia using a dynamic panel data approach for 45 tourism source countries over the period 2005–2015. The results show that institutions play a very important role in explaining the behaviour of inbound tourism demand. To obtain a better picture, we investigate the response of international tourists to disaggregated institutional quality. We find that international tourists are more concerned about political stability, governmental effectiveness, regulations, laws, and corruption than voice and accountability. Therefore, policymakers should focus on ways to improve institutional quality to significantly increase international tourist arrivals.     

颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型

基于颠覆性创新、创新扩散、创新模糊前端等相关理论，从全流程角度创新性地构建了颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型，包括颠覆性创意产生、颠覆性创新产品开发、侵蚀非主流市场、占据主流市场4个阶段，各阶段之间相互关联、循环往复，并受到技术、市场、政策、竞争等外部环境因素影响。选取液晶电视机和山寨手机作为高端和低端两个颠覆性创新典型案例，通过对其进行验证性分析，构建具体的高端与低端颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型。     

Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

基于云模型的企业主流与新流创新绩效评价

基于不同企业创新战略而衍生的主流与新流创新特征，运用逻辑框架法思想，从创新投入、过程、产出和效益4个维度，构建出体现企业主流与新流创新特征的绩效评价指标体系，引入基于正态云的创新绩效评价模型以解决部分评价指标的模糊性和随机性问题。最后，以国内6家汽车企业为例，测算其以燃油动力为主的主流创新绩效和以新能源动力为主的新流创新绩效。实证分析结果表明，该评价指标体系和评价模型能有效衡量不同企业主流与新流创新绩效的差异，同时，测算两种创新对企业整体创新绩效的贡献。     

能源效率、环境污染与中国经济发展方式转变

以往研究虽然关注了能源效率与经济发展之间的关系,但却忽略了能源利用过程中环境污染的改善对经济发展方式转变的影响。本文将环境变量纳入能源效率分析框架内,采用EBM-DEA模型测算了中国各地区能源效率,并利用动态空间面板模型,实证考察了环境约束下的能源效率对中国经济发展方式转变的影响。研究结果显示,中国经济发展方式具有明显的空间相关性和路径依赖性;与未考虑环境污染相比,环境约束下的能源效率对经济发展方式转变的影响更为明显,这也在一定程度上表明,如果不考虑能源效率提升的环境污染改善效应,将会低估其对经济发展方式转变的影响。本文结论为提升中国能源效率水平,加快经济发展方式转变提供政策启示。     

Factor Heterogeneity,Factor Market Imperfection and Trade

This paper develops a tractable model of examining how factor heterogeneity and imperfect factor market interact for determining a pattern of trade. Institution plays a crucial role for the interaction. In my work, firm productivity is defined as a composition of factor productivity and technology. Thus, input selection should affect the pattern of Melitz’s intra-industry allocation due to the incurring transaction cost. For a simple model, I assume two factors (labor and capital) and two sectors, which are relatively less institution-dependent and relatively more institution-dependent. When the economy is open, effect of the transaction cost on income distribution is more drastic for an institutionally underdeveloped country. Depending on institutional quality, the economic openness reallocates resource across countries through job creation or job destruction. The job turnovers redistribute income between heterogeneous labors within countries. The income redistribution is catalyzed by international mobility of capital. As a result, income disparity is widened between the institutionally developed country and the institutionally underdeveloped country. This paper can contribute to the literature of institution and international trade.     

The structure of information release and the factor structure of returns

We model how firms releasing information on different dates causes the CAPM to fail, requiring an additional factor based on the information structure to price assets. We exemplify this mechanism’s empirical relevance using quarterly earnings announcements, which cluster across months along size and book-to-market. Seventy percent of the alpha reduction from including SMB and HML occurs in the four main earnings announcement months. The information structure factor accounts for all of SMB and HML’s seasonal alpha reduction and one third of their overall alpha reduction. Controlling for size and book-to-market, exposures to SMB and HML vary with firms’ earnings announcement month.